Situation Report: Weekly New Cases in Pakistan Drop for the First in Four Months

For the first time since the outbreak emerged in Pakistan during late February 2020, weekly new cases have dropped as compared to the earlier week.

This essentially means that every week, the number of new cases grew since Feb 26th, 2020 — but last week, for the first time, the weekly new cases were lesser than the previous week.

This week, a total of 36,610 new cases were registered, down 10% when compared to last week when 40,807 new cases were recorded from across the country.

More in the below graph:

This downward trend is hinting that we might be undergoing a peak — and if the trend continues for another week (if cases remain same or lower than this week) then it will be certain that we have flattened the curve and then a decline in cases will continue for the remainder of the time.

It is important to note that disease isn’t over, it’s only that we have somehow managed to control the spread and that all SOPs issued by the government must be followed to keep the trend this way.

It must also be noted that recently imposed so-called smart lock-downs (across various cities) aren’t behind this negative trend of new cases. As any lock-down of activity show a positive impact only after 15 days of imposition.

Thus this flattening of the curve seems to be natural in nature and may only get better since we locked-down over 1,400 communities across 20 densely populated cities of Pakistan.

Also to note, if you are thinking Pakistan’s testing capacity is limited — well that’s true, but its actually at par with various regional nations.

Check below the graph of the testing chart of various countries when compared with Pakistan:

Weekly Deaths

Weekly deaths, however, continued to increase this week. A total of 861 patients died of coronavirus related complications this week, up 23% when compared with last week when 662 patients had lost their lives.

23% increase in new deaths, however, is lower than 35% increase in a week over week deaths that we saw last week. This indicates that the rate of increase in weekly deaths is positive, however, the rate has slowed down marginally.

It must be mentioned here that deaths occur after 15 days of the emergence of new cases, hence this increase in deaths will continue for another two weeks until they will come down, given that our new cases will continue to remain flat or decline in the coming days.

Here is some more data on testing per thousand, deaths per million and other indicators for Pakistan:

Total Cases Deaths Death Rate Deaths Per Million Total Tests Tests Per 1,000
AJK 845 20 2.37% 4.95 25,922 6.42
Balochistan 9,475 102 1.08% 8.27 43,104 3.49
GB 1,288 22 1.71% 11.58 13,565 7.14
Islamabad 10,912 101 0.93% 50.50 103,209 51.60
KP 21,997 821 3.73% 26.90 124,188 4.07
Punjab 66,943 1435 2.14% 13.04 427,341 3.88
Sindh 69,628 1089 1.56% 22.74 378,849 7.91
Total 181,088 3590 1.98% 17.20 1,116,178 5.35
Yesterday’s Report

More on yesterday’s situation, check below table and graphs:

Confirmed Cases In 24 Hours Tests in 24 Hours Deaths Last 24 Hours
AJK 845 32 707 20 01
Balochistan 9,475 147 247 102 02
GB 1,288 10 117 22 01
Islamabad 10,912 250 2,545 101 03
KP 21,997 553 3,416 821 13
Punjab 66,943 1,204 9,598 1,435 28
Sindh 69,628 2,275 13,890 (Record) 1,089 41
Total 181,088 4,471 30,250 3,590 89

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