Bitcoin Final Crash to 10,000 is Imminent

Bitcoin ($BTC) absorbed the first blows from a devastative bankruptcy of the FTX exchange without a massive price decline as many expected. A mild sell-off occurred, but perhaps a bigger one is looming.

FTX could still be the main event, the “bad news” that will set the stage for the final price dip before recovery begins. However, the market seems ready for another breakout to the downside, and the odds increase as time is closing toward the final price crash.

History does not repeat itself in exact detail, but the BTC chart presents such tendencies. Bitcoin’s price can crash by 50% with or without bad news. It only takes whales’ coordination, and market panic will follow.

In August, we explored a scenario of Bitcoin’s price dropping to $8000 in December 2022. As the time approaches, this scenario seems possible within the following weeks. The selected chart is constantly updated, but in one particular, the price seems to follow the 2018 pattern quite tightly.

We explore the price crash of Bitcoin (BTC) during November and December 2018 and how the BTC price can resemble this crash.

$BTC at $10,000 In The Next Four Weeks

We examine the Bitcoin price comparison with the previous bear cycle of 2018. Still, if we look further into the past, we recognize that 2014–2015 was not different either.

We are getting closer to the end of the bust cycle, awaiting the final bottom. Eventually, a new speculative bull run will begin as the 4th Bitcoin halving approaches. However, we lack the ultimate dip, the one that will send the price to a level many would consider a disaster.

In a previous prediction (in July 2022), we discussed some facts like why no bounce happened and how this price action could set up Bitcoin for the next leg down:

The time is closer than ever, perhaps days or weeks away from the final dip that will send Bitcoin down to $10,000 or even lower. And right there, it will be (most probably) the bottom of the current bear market for the cryptocurrency market.

This chart takes price movements of the past 1,458 days and repeats those movements again to predict the price on each day over the coming 1,458 days. It also displays the previous after-halving top price as well as the tops after each upcoming halving.

Zooming in on the chart, we watch how the price of Bitcoin follows the same trajectory as in 2018.

This price movement indicates that in the following weeks or even days, the price could drop to $10,245.

The key support of $18,000 has broken.

What happens next?

An interesting point on the chart is the price plunge that occurred in November 2018.

Bitcoin’s price started dropping from $6300 in November (2018) and ended at the $3100 floor one month later in December 2018.

In the following four months, between December 2018 and April 2019, BTC was looking ready for further downside, although the first signs of recovery appeared on April 1st, 2019, despite predictions by influential traders of $1,000 as the price target.

A similar scenario is possible since BTC has already dropped to a new two-year low ($15,600) with no convincing demand backing this price as a bottom. Bitcoin’s price is currently at the end of the capitulation stage, and despair will follow.

The last two weeks indicate short-term support at $15,000, but can Bitcoin last another big selloff? I doubt $15,000 or $14,000 will support it. The next strong level of support is $10,000.

Since its last ATH one year ago (November 10th, 2021), Bitcoin’s price is only dropping. With just one bounce from $33k to $48k that lasted three months, most investors are disappointed.

$14,000 was the top in 2019, and various analysts suggest buying there. However, from a personal perspective, $14k will easily break during a violent downturn.

Recovery Should Begin in 2023

The model of this chart by Buy Bitcoin Worldwide predicts the price of BTC, according to the price trajectory four years ago.

However, one detail is that the period of four years does not signify anything. A correct approach would be to define the cycles’ recurrence within a time frame of three years and nine or ten months.

Each Bitcoin halving occurs every 210,000 blocks, which is about every four years, but not exactly. It takes approximately two months less each time.

Moreover, the market in 2021 didn’t follow the 2017 trajectory, but the price of Bitcoin stopped at $69,000 in November. Two months before the end of the year (2021), Bitcoin started the bearish cycle, unlike 2017.

However, this doesn’t invalidate the model. Two months left in 2022, and we will know if $15k or $10k was the bottom.

The Bitcoin halvings induce the boom and bust cycles, as new waves of speculation begin. These cycles will keep repeating for as long as investors are buying during the parabola.

Bitcoin will then get beaten up, lose 80–90% from ATH, stabilize after approximately one year, and then begin again a bullish pattern that ends with a new parabolic trajectory. Hince and repeat.

And the same bubbles will happen again, although with fewer rewards each time.

Timing our entry makes a huge difference since most investors still don’t realize how the halvings and the cycles work. They won’t ever do research, and that’s not about the retail investors either.

We need to go no further than FTX and the top funds investing in it.